Lundy Investors
Lundy Investors

Disciplined capital.
Global insight.

Capital that does the work.

Lundy Investors is an FCA-regulated investment and advisory firm, operating across asset management, strategic advisory and independent intelligence: built to help investors and organisations navigate complex markets.

Speak to the team Explore our products →
5
Business lines
Public · Private · Advisory · Research · Distribution
2016
Founded
FCA-authorised since 2020
4
Regions
Europe · Africa · the Middle East · Asia
FCA
UK-authorised
Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
The firm

Lundy operates across three core disciplines.

Everything here starts with our own research: it drives how we invest, and it grounds how we advise. Five business lines, three disciplines, one standard of work.

01 / Public & private markets

Investment Management

The Discovery Global Strategy, the Commodities Fund and LevaNA. Capital deployed as principals: our own research, our own deals, and where it counts, assets we own and operate ourselves.

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02 / Institutions & sovereigns

Strategic Advisory

The same judgement, lent to clients: investment, corporate and sovereign & development advisory from the FCA-regulated UK platform. Adviser and potential investor, because we are both.

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03 / Research & analysis

Lundy Intelligence

The research engine beneath both: emerging and frontier markets, specialist commodities, and positioning in global markets. Our committee reads it first; subscribers read the same work.

Explore →
Asset Management

How the strategies are run.

We run each strategy in its own vehicle, with its own mandate and a named lead. The desks share research and deal flow, but capital decisions stay separate. What they have in common is the standard: our own people do the work on every position before the committee sees it.

01 / Public markets · Global

Public Markets · Discovery Global Strategy

Our global public-markets strategy: macro and thematic, long and short, run as a separately managed account since November 2024. The core is developed markets. MENA coverage comes from our Beirut desk, and we take frontier positions only where our own people have done the work on the ground.

Strategy detail →
02 / Private markets · Africa

Private Markets · Commodities Fund

We invest as an owner-operator across West African agricultural and mineral value chains: owning the plantations, processing, warehousing and export rather than lending against inventory. Active in Nigeria through a wholly owned export subsidiary.

Strategy detail →
03 / Private markets · Levant & North Africa

Private Markets · LevaNA Fund

A hybrid of private equity and credit in the consumer-goods companies of the Levant and North Africa. We take meaningful stakes and build the business: brand, value-addition and the export capability to reach international markets.

Strategy detail →
Advisory

Investment, corporate and sovereign & development advisory.

UK-based investment and corporate advisory, serving institutions, family offices, corporates and sovereign-aligned entities. One team across both.

Practice A

Investment Advisory

Non-discretionary portfolio advisory, outsourced CIO mandates and risk advisory for institutional and family-office capital.

Advisory detail →
Practice B

Corporate Advisory

M&A, capital raising, financial restructuring and strategic advisory for mid-market corporates and projects, with a focus on cross-border situations in our active markets.

Advisory detail →
How the firm fits together

One firm, compounding.

Each part exists because the others needed it. We advise institutions, corporates and sovereigns on the markets we know, grounded in the research and insight of our own desk. That same judgement runs managed accounts for private clients, and deepens into our funds, where we own and operate the assets ourselves. And Origin closes the loop: taking what the companies we invest in produce, and finding it a market. Five business lines, one flow: each making the others sharper.

AdvisoryIntelligenceManagedaccountsFundsOrigin …and what we build feeds what we advise.
Lundy Intelligence

Notes from the desk.

Research our own committee reads first: emerging and frontier markets, specialist commodities, and positioning in global markets. The full feed and subscriptions sit on the Intelligence page.

All research →
Global markets
9 June 2026 · Research note

The Great AI Listing: anatomy of a $220 billion IPO supercycle.

Five companies, US$220 billion in primary raises, US$3.4 trillion of implied valuation. Nearly five times the entire 2025 US IPO market, in one summer. Where the capital comes from, what suffers, and where we are in the cycle.

Lundy Intelligence · Edward Rowson · Read the summary →
Dot-com · Jan 1995→Mar 2000 AI era · Oct 2022→Jun 2026 100300500700 Dot-com peakMar 2000 We are here · Jun 2026 0102030405060 Months from cycle start · both series indexed to 100
Fig. — NASDAQ cycle comparison, dot-com vs AI era · Source: Bloomberg, NASDAQ; Lundy Intelligence
Brent+6.0%Corn+4.6%Coal+3.7%NatGas+2.7%Lithium+2.4%Soybeans+1.5%Gold+0.9%Coffee+0.8%Iron Ore+0.8%Copper+0.3%Steel+0.1%Cocoa-0.8%Nickel-1.2%
Fig. — Weekly total return to 14 Aug · Source: Barchart; Lundy Intelligence
Commodities
17 August 2026 · Edition 218

Weekly Commodity Report.

Brent led the board (+6.0%) as the war premium returned and a below-trendline WASDE woke the grains; only cocoa and nickel closed red. The week’s signal, in one read.

Weekly series · Read the summary →
NY Cocoa+7.13%London+5.93%Arabica+1.04%Robusta+0.13%
Fig. — Weekly change, w/e 7 Aug · Source: Lundy Intelligence
Soft commodities
10 August 2026 · Edition 06

Weekly Cocoa & Coffee Report.

New York cocoa +7.13% on the week: a Monday gap, a Wednesday shooting star, then a market that refused to fall. Stocks at two-year highs say the physical is not leading; positioning is.

Weekly series · Read the summary →
Cassava & yam#1Shea#1Sesame#2Gum arabic#3Barite#4Cocoa#5Oil palm#5
Fig. — World position, by resource · Source: Paper 1
Emerging markets
July 2026 · Nigeria Resource Research

The Neglected Endowment.

Top-tier producer, low-tier value capture: Nigeria’s endowment mapped against the world market, and what stands between geological occurrence and bankable reserve.

Research paper · Read the summary →
SemisData & energyEnterpriseAI employeesReal-worldAug 2026
Fig. — Five phases, timeline and overlap · Source: Lundy analysis
Global markets
December 2025 · Special Report

The Arc of AI: a five-phase framework.

AI as a sequence of capital cycles, 2024 to 2029: five phases from silicon to superintelligence, each with distinct beneficiaries and casualties, and the rotation between them.

Special report · Read the summary →
Press

In the media.

Selected coverage and appearances. Links open on the publisher's own site.

Press enquiries →
AGBI · May 2023

Lebanon's export orders rise for the first time in two years

Arabian Gulf Business Insight reports a rebound in Lebanese export orders on the back of currency stabilisation and stronger Gulf trade: the macro backdrop to the firm's LevaNA consumer-export thesis.

Read on AGBI →
LinkedIn · Welcome2Africa

Edward Rowson at the Europe–Nigeria Agri-Investments & Trade Forum

The firm's founder joins the 4th Europe–Nigeria Agri-Investments & Trade Forum, speaking on advancing agri-industrial growth through EU–Nigeria trade partnerships.

View on LinkedIn →
Leadership

The principals.

The firm is led by its co-founders: Edward Rowson, chief executive, and Wael Menhem, chief investment officer. Behind them sit research and operations teams across four regions, and fund boards with independent oversight.

Edward Rowson

Edward Rowson

Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer

25 years across EM macro, commodities and fund management: MENA Capital, IMM Group, Balfour Capital. Leads the firm's public-markets strategy and the Commodities Fund. Master's in Finance, London Business School.

Full CV →
Wael Menhem

Wael Menhem

Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer

Joined Lundy in 2019 from IMM Group, Dubai. Previously MENA equity research at Credit Suisse and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, on teams voted #1 by Institutional Investor. Leads the LevaNA Fund and the firm's research. BSc Mathematics, American University of Beirut.

Full CV →
Khaled Abdel Majeed

Khaled Abdel Majeed

Non-Executive Director · Fund Boards

Founded MENA Capital (2005), which launched the first dedicated MENA hedge fund. Previously CIO of EFG-Hermes Asset Management and a director of Blakeney Management. On the fund platform's board since 2022.

Full CV →

Contact the firm.

Whether it is a first enquiry or a follow-up, a meeting, or an introduction for a colleague: write to the desk below. A principal reads it.

Speak to the team Professional clients and eligible counterparties only
The firm

The firm.

An investment firm authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority. Principal-led, with five products on one regulated platform, operating across Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

2
Principals
Edward Rowson · Wael Menhem
2016
Founded
FCA-authorised since 2020
4
Regions
Europe · Africa · Middle East · Asia
5
Products
Two funds · a strategy · advisory · research
The Lundy story

Where the name comes from.

Lundy takes its name from Lundy Island, off the southwest coast of England, long a mark of safe passage in the Bristol Channel, known for clarity, refuge and perspective. The puffin, our emblem, stands for steadiness, intelligence and unwavering direction. These traits underpin the way we manage capital, advise institutions and build long-term partnerships.

Our mission: invest with precision, operate with integrity, and support clients through changing market cycles.

Lundy Island coastline in the Bristol Channel, the firm's namesake
Lundy Island · Bristol Channel
What we offer

Our products, at a glance.

The island gives us the name; the work gives it meaning. Lundy Investors Limited was incorporated in England in 2016 and has been authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority since May 2020, and everything we offer runs on that platform.

Public Markets

Discovery Global Strategy

Global public equities in a separately managed account, alongside bespoke discretionary mandates for private groups.

Explore →

Private Markets

Commodities Fund & LevaNA

Owner-operator equity from farm gate to export, and hybrid private capital across the Levant and North Africa.

Explore →

Advisory

Strategic Advisory

Investment, corporate and sovereign & development advisory: as adviser and as potential investor.

Explore →

Research

Lundy Intelligence

Subscription research: emerging and frontier markets, specialist commodities, and positioning in global markets.

Explore →

Distribution

Lundy Origin

The route to market for what our companies produce: branded goods and bulk commodities to international buyers.

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Anchored by the FCA-regulated UK entity · operating across four regions

Leadership

The principals.

Two principals lead the firm: its founder and its chief investment officer. They are supported by a research and operations team across four countries, and by a fund board with independent oversight.

Edward Rowson
Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer

Edward Rowson

Co-founder of Lundy Investors. 25 years across EM macro, commodities and fund management: Partner at MENA Capital (2006 to 2012), helped launch the first dedicated MENA hedge fund and grow it from a US$20m seed past US$100m; Managing Director at IMM Group, Dubai; earlier COO of Balfour Capital and derivatives roles at JP Morgan Asset Management. Portfolio manager of the firm's public-markets strategy and lead on the Commodities Fund.

Master's in Finance, London Business School. Master Financial Technical Analyst (MFTA). IMC holder.

Wael Menhem
Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer

Wael Menhem

Joined Lundy in 2019 from IMM Group, Dubai, where he was Research Director and co-portfolio manager of the GCC Active Fund. Previously Vice President of MENA non-financials research at Credit Suisse, and lead analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Dubai and at Merrill Lynch in Riyadh, on teams voted #1 by Institutional Investor in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Leads the LevaNA Fund and the firm's research function. Director and shareholder of Lundy Investors Limited.

BSc Mathematics (Statistics), American University of Beirut, with dean's honours.

Khaled Abdel Majeed
Non-Executive Director · Fund Boards

Khaled Abdel Majeed

Founder of MENA Capital (2005), manager of the first dedicated MENA hedge fund. Three decades in MENA and frontier equities: previously Chief Investment Officer of EFG-Hermes Asset Management in Cairo, a director of Blakeney Management, and deputy head of the investment management group at Arab Bank, London. Non-executive director of the firm's Cayman fund platform since November 2022.

BA Economics, Tufts University. MBA (Finance), Columbia Business School.

Regulation and legal

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Lundy Investors Limited has been authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority since 26 May 2020. The firm's regulated activities and permitted client categories are listed on the FCA register under firm reference 847174.

  1. RegulatorFinancial Conduct Authority
  2. FRN847174Authorised 26 May 2020
  3. Co. no.10295668Incorporated in England and Wales, 2016
  4. RegisteredFirst Floor, The Old Barn, Kings Lane, Cookham Dean, Maidenhead, Berkshire SL6 9AY
  5. ClientsProfessional clients and eligible counterparties only. Not for retail clients.
At a glance

UK-regulated. Five products, one platform.

2
Principals
5
Products, one platform
4
Regions · Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia
FCA
UK-authorised and regulated

Speak to the team.

For investor enquiries, follow-up meetings or factsheets, write to the team. A principal reads every message.

Contact Lundy Professional clients and eligible counterparties only
Asset Management

Asset management, across public and private markets.

Lundy runs strategies across public and private markets. In public markets, through managed accounts and the Discovery Global Strategy. In private markets, through bespoke strategies built where we have seen a specific opportunity: the Commodities Fund and LevaNA. Each strategy has a named lead, a documented process and its own vehicle, with separate investment-committee approvals.

Public Markets · Discovery Global Strategy Commodities Fund LevaNA
2
Markets
Public · managed accounts  /  Private · bespoke strategies
3
Asset classes
Public markets · Trade finance · Private capital
Global
Geography
Discovery global · Africa and Middle East regional
1
Investment committee
Weekly · board monthly
I.

Public Markets

Global public equities through managed accounts: the Discovery Global Strategy, and bespoke discretionary mandates for private groups.

Discretionary

Portfolio mandates

Lundy manages the account within an agreed mandate: strategy, limits and reporting defined at the outset, decisions taken by our investment committee. The Discovery Global Strategy is the flagship.

Non-discretionary

Advisory accounts

The client keeps the final decision; Lundy provides the research, the recommendations and the execution support: the same standard of work, with the mandate held by you.

Public Markets · Discovery Global Strategy

A global macro and thematic strategy, run long and short.

Discovery is a global strategy, unconstrained across geography, asset class and sector, targeting absolute returns of 15% per annum. Macro and thematic, expressed long and short in liquid instruments, and run as a separately managed account since November 2024. The target is an objective, not a promise: capital is at risk and returns will vary.

Track record since inception
+20%+10%0 +20.8% net Nov 20242025Jul 2026
Fig. — Discovery Global Strategy, cumulative net return since inception (24 Nov 2024) · Source: administrator records, Interactive Brokers
On requestStrategy AUM
Nov 2024Inception
GlobalUniverse
Absolute returnObjective

Style Global and unconstrained: macro and thematic, long and short, across geography, asset class and sector.

Strategy leads Wael Menhem and Edward Rowson.

Strategy AUM On request.

Beyond Discovery The firm also manages bespoke discretionary portfolio mandates for private groups and family holdings, under the same managed-account structure.

+20.8%Since inception, net
12.0%Annualised return
7.6%Annualised volatility
1.10Sharpe ratio

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Figures are net of fees, from inception on 24 November 2024 to 31 July 2026, and are drawn from administrator and custodian records. Capital is at risk.

Vehicle Separately managed account, custodied at Interactive Brokers; a pooled vehicle is in development. Professional clients and eligible counterparties only.

Investment approach

We run a concentrated book, sized by conviction rather than benchmark weight. The mandate is unconstrained: developed and emerging markets, equities, rates, currencies and commodities, long and short, wherever the research finds asymmetry.

Each position has a written thesis, a downside case and a defined exit trigger. The strategy does not run a benchmark-relative book and does not trade index reweightings.

Track record

The track record from inception in November 2024 is available to professional clients and eligible counterparties on request, under NDA. Performance is reported gross and net of fees, with as-at dates on every figure.

The strategy is built for allocators who want liquid, research-led, unconstrained global exposure.

Request the track record →

II.

Private Markets

Bespoke strategies, built where we have seen a specific opportunity and can own the execution: the Commodities Fund and LevaNA.

Private Markets · Commodities Fund

Investing across the commodity value chain as owner-operator.

The Commodities Fund invests in food and mineral security: agricultural and mineral value chains, owned and operated from origin to export. The focus is Africa; the mandate is global. We hold the physical chain, farms, processing and logistics, while an active trading book keeps the fund liquid.

On requestFund AUM
2020Inception
Sub-Saharan AfricaGeographical focus
Softs · Agri · MineralsPrimary sectors

Lead Edward Rowson / Wael Menhem.

Style Equity or senior-secured debt into businesses that allow for operational control.

Geography Sub-Saharan Africa. Current focus is Nigeria, where the fund is developing and investing in the cocoa supply chain through a wholly owned export subsidiary with warehousing in Lagos; Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon and East Africa under coverage.

Legal vehicle Lundy Commodities Fund SP, a segregated portfolio of a Cayman Islands SPC registered with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority as a private fund. A wholly owned operating subsidiary, Lundy Commodities Nigeria Limited (RC 7810809), is an NEPC-registered exporter.

Fund milestones
2020Fund launch: senior-secured trade finance in West African soft commoditiesLaunch
2022Cocoa export trade-finance facilities, NigeriaTrade finance
2023Cocoa processing facility financeTerm finance
2025Launch of Lundy Commodities Nigeria Limited for direct exportsOperations
2026Owner-operator in cocoa plantationsOrigination
2026Launch of Lundy Edge: commodity trading and hedging to generate alpha for the fundTrading
Process

Each transaction follows five stages: origination, on-the-ground due diligence, structural review, investment-committee approval and post-close monitoring. Lundy Intelligence runs due diligence and monitoring, with staff in origin countries during harvest cycles.

Pricing is benchmarked against the London and New York terminal markets, with a basis-risk overlay maintained in-house. The investment committee receives exposure reports weekly.

Request the strategy deck →

Private Markets · LevaNA Fund

Backing the consumer-goods companies of the Levant and North Africa, and building them for export.

LevaNA (Levant and North Africa) is the firm’s private-markets strategy for the region, run through the Lundy Lebanon Growth Fund: a hybrid of private equity and credit that takes meaningful stakes in founder-led businesses and then works inside them. The Fund holds ten businesses across two platforms, one industrial and one in consumer and services, with involvement that runs from financial discipline and process to brand, production and the export capability to place product in international markets. It is capital built for the region’s realities: patient, close to its companies, and underwritten to the world as it is.

On requestFund AUM
2022Inception
Levant & N. AfricaPrimary geography
Industrials · Consumer & servicesPrimary sectors

Fund Manager Wael Menhem / Edward Rowson

Style Patient capital (equity alongside selective credit), typically a five-to-eight-year hold. Majority or significant-minority positions, with operational involvement via Origin and Intelligence.

Geography Lebanon core, with the wider Levant and selective North Africa.

Legal vehicle Lundy Lebanon Growth Fund SP, a segregated portfolio of the firm's Cayman Islands platform, holding its portfolio through two Lebanese holding companies.

Portfolio companies

LevaNA portfolio companies form the producer side of Lundy Origin's distribution book. Each has a brand page on Lundy Origin.

2023Lebgenco (Orchards of Laila), organic olive oil and pantryEquity · Lebanon
2022961 Beer, independent Lebanese craft breweryEquity · Lebanon
2021Couvent Rouge, Bekaa Valley wineryEquity · Lebanon
2024Smoking Barrels, Beirut smokehouse and fine foodsEquity · Lebanon
The export-led repair thesis

Middle Eastern consumer-goods companies do not fit the typical private-equity timetable. The cycle from credible producer to international brand placed in the Gulf, the UK and Europe runs longer than a five-year hold. We built LevaNA for that timeline, and we built Lundy Origin so the portfolio would have a route to market while it matures.

The underlying thesis is covered in detail in the Intelligence note "Lebanese consumer-goods companies: the export-led repair thesis."

Why the fund exists

LevaNA was built for two kinds of capital: regional investors seeking the productive redeployment of hard-currency savings into real, export-earning assets; and development-finance institutions and other investors whose mandate is to sustain and grow the region’s productive base. For both, the measure is capital preserved and put to work: building companies that endure.

Reporting & transparency

Investors receive fund factsheets and the managers’ letters, written candidly, through good quarters and hard ones. We have reported through a banking collapse and a war; we believe that record of communication is itself part of the track record. Current factsheets and management letters are available to qualified investors on request.

Request the latest factsheet →

Built through the worst

The portfolio has operated through Lebanon’s banking collapse and through conflict, and kept producing, kept exporting, kept employing. Export earnings in hard currency, held outside the domestic banking system through the fund’s offshore structure, are the model’s resilience. Performance must be read in that context; we present it with that context, not without it.

The long game

We are not assembling a scattered portfolio. We are developing complementary consumer and agricultural value-addition businesses (shared routes to market, shared infrastructure) toward a group with the scale to attract strategic capital and, in time, a potential public listing. Meaningful stakes and long holds are what that construction requires.

Platform governance

Administration, audit and oversight.

The private strategies sit on a Cayman Islands segregated-portfolio platform, registered with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority as a private fund. The platform board includes a non-executive and an independent director, and the funds are administered, audited and valued by named third parties.

  1. AdminBolder Fund Services (Cayman)Independent administrator; third-party verification of assets and NAV.
  2. AuditKPMG, Cayman IslandsFund auditor.
  3. ValuationGrant Thornton (portfolio valuations) · KPMG (fund audit)Independent valuation agent.
  1. BankingNorthern Trust InternationalFund banker.
  2. LegalOsborne Clarke · WalkersEnglish and Cayman counsel.
  3. BoardThree directors, one independentEdward Rowson, Khaled Abdel Majeed (non-executive), Richard Scott-Hopkins (independent).
Across all three strategies

Three vehicles share one investment committee.

3
Investment strategies
1
Investment committee
2
Supporting lines · Origin and Intelligence
FCA
UK-authorised

Strategy decks and track records.

Available to professional clients and eligible counterparties on request, under NDA.

Request the decks Professional clients and eligible counterparties only
Lundy Advisory

Advisory.

Investment and corporate advisory from our UK platform: for institutions, family offices, corporates, governments and development-finance institutions. We assess projects as adviser and as potential investor, because we are both: we prepare projects to the standard private capital requires, and we can invest behind them.

US$150m+
Advised on since 2020
Transactions, assets and portfolios
8+
Countries worked in
Across Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia
7
Institutional clients
DFIs, banks, funds, states and corporates
US$60m
Development capital approved
On our work, single programme
Overview

The three practices.

Lundy operates its advisory practice across Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia, anchored by our FCA-regulated UK platform, with research and execution support from our teams in the Levant and South Asia, and operations on the ground in West Africa. The work is alongside boards, investment committees and public institutions, through strategic transitions, capital events and programme delivery.

Engagements delivered since 2020 split across three practices: Investment Advisory for portfolio-construction and oversight mandates; Corporate Advisory for transactions and capital-structure work; and Sovereign & Development Advisory for states, DFIs and development programmes. All three sit inside the FCA-authorised UK entity.

Dubai Marina skyline, black and white
Four regions · one standard
Practice A

Investment Advisory.

Built for institutions, corporates and family offices that want senior-level investment expertise without building it in-house.

A1 / Portfolio

Non-Discretionary Portfolio Advisory

Asset allocation frameworks, portfolio structures and investment roadmaps; the client retains execution control. Covers strategic and tactical allocation, portfolio construction, multi-asset guidance, thematic research and scenario testing.

A2 / Mandate

Outsourced CIO

Continuous oversight for clients without an internal investment function: investment policy design, manager selection and due diligence, portfolio monitoring, quarterly investment-committee reporting, consolidated performance reporting and treasury guidance.

A3 / Risk

Risk Advisory

Market and FX risk frameworks, duration and rate-sensitivity analysis, sector and factor risk decomposition, and hedging-strategy advisory.

Practice B

Corporate Advisory.

Transaction and capital-structure advisory for mid-market corporates and projects, with a focus on cross-border situations in our active markets.

B1 / M&A

M&A Advisory

Buy-side and sell-side mandates, valuation, negotiation, due-diligence coordination and transaction support.

B2 / Capital

Capital Raising

Debt, equity and structured financing for corporates and projects. Preparation, positioning, documentation and investor engagement.

B3 / Restructuring

Financial Restructuring

Balance-sheet restructuring, debt renegotiation and capital-structure optimisation.

B4 / Strategy

Strategic & Business Advisory

Feasibility studies, market-entry strategy, corporate repositioning, operational improvement and board-level strategy support.

Practice C

Sovereign & Development Advisory.

For states, development-finance institutions and development programmes in emerging and developing markets: project preparation and delivery to investor standards, from a firm that operates on the ground.

C1 / DFIs

DFI & Development Bank Mandates

Value-chain studies, market analysis, company and portfolio due diligence, and investment-programme design for development-finance institutions and multilateral lenders.

C2 / States

State & Public-Sector Advisory

Investment-programme and PPP preparation for governments and sub-sovereigns, built to private-investor standards, bankable from day one, with transaction support through to close.

C3 / Delivery

Programme Implementation

Field-level delivery and monitoring: farmer registration, traceability systems and supply-chain programmes implemented in-country to a funder’s specification.

C4 / Impact

Impact, ESG & Climate

EUDR readiness and traceability compliance, ESG frameworks for emerging-market operators, impact measurement, and carbon readiness and baseline studies, with verification through accredited partners.

How an engagement runs

Five stages, one standard.

The same passage on every mandate, whichever practice it sits in: understand the need, assess the evidence, recommend in writing, execute, and stay. Delivery is principal-led, with named accountability at every stage.

01

Understand

We start with your actual question, not our template. Scope, timeline and commercial terms are stated at the outset, before any work begins.

02

Assess

Evidence assembled and verified in the field. Every number that leaves the firm has a source, a check and a signature behind it.

03

Recommend

A defined first engagement: four weeks, a fixed fee, and a written recommendation either way: go, or don’t. The document stands alone.

04

Execute

From business case to close: investment materials, counterparties and transaction support. Where conviction is earned, our own capital can participate.

05

Stay

Delivery isn’t the end. Implementation support, monitoring and ongoing counsel: our longest client relationships have renewed year after year.

Selected engagements

Representative mandates.

Below is a selection of recent mandates, described at a high level. Demand for this work is structural: development capital increasingly requires investor-grade preparation and independent verification. In African agriculture alone, programmes exceeding US$800m are generating sustained demand. Client and counterparty names are withheld; fuller summaries and references are available to qualified parties on request.

SOVEREIGN & DEVCocoa Value Chain Initiative for a multilateral African trade-finance institution: six-country business plan and financial architecture, approved for US$25m of equity and US$35m of debt.
INVESTMENTIndependent valuation of a portfolio of trade-finance funds for a European banking client; renewed continuously since 2020, relied on by external auditors.
CORPORATECommercial and technical due diligence on a West African cocoa processor for the impact investment arm of a pan-African development bank, ahead of a convertible-note investment.
SOVEREIGN & DEVNational vehicle-inspection strategy for a Central African state: tiered pricing designed to lift compliance from under 30% toward 90%.
INVESTMENTIndependent valuation and restructuring advisory for a US private-credit fund on a distressed position in Indonesia; a special-situations workout.
CORPORATECash-conversion-cycle and route-to-market restructuring for a leading Egyptian auto-parts distributor, via partner firm.
SOVEREIGN & DEVTraceability and EUDR-compliance programme delivered in the field in Ondo State, Nigeria, to a European buyer’s specification.
SOVEREIGN & DEV

Six-country cocoa value-chain initiative

2025–26 · West Africa

The situation

A pan-African trade-finance institution needed an investable architecture for intervening across the West African cocoa value chain: six countries, from farm-gate aggregation to processing and export.

What we did

We built the business plan and financial architecture end to end: three research papers (origin analysis, then value propositions and strategic architecture), an investment-committee-grade financial model of a vertically integrated platform spanning origination, processing and trade finance, and the final presentation and recommendation to the executive. Terms of reference to the executive table in one cycle, September 2025 to May 2026.

The outcome

The programme was approved for US$25m of equity and US$35m of debt, and is moving toward implementation.

US$25mEquity approved
US$35mDebt approved
6Countries
3 + modelPapers & IC model

References available to qualified parties on request.

INVESTMENT

Independent fund-portfolio valuation for a European bank

2020–25 · Retained · latest reports October 2025

The situation

A European bank held positions across a portfolio of hard-to-value trade-finance funds spanning multiple jurisdictions and hundreds of underlying portfolio companies, including side-pocketed and workout assets: exactly the Level-3 exposures where an administrator’s mark alone is not enough. The bank needed independent valuations its auditors could rely on, refreshed as the workouts evolved.

What we did

We analyse the funds line by line, every investment including the side-pockets, and build market-participant valuation models over the administrators’ NAVs: each asset banded by time-to-cash and execution risk, with bull, base and bear scenarios prepared for the bank’s valuation and investment committees. Judgement shown, not asserted.

The outcome

Our valuation reports and models have supported the bank’s committees and been relied on by its external auditors each year. The relationship speaks for itself: engaged in 2020, renewed every year since, and the most recent renewal at three times the original rate.

2020Engaged6 yrsRenewed annually100sUnderlying companies3×Latest renewal rate

References available to qualified parties on request.

SOVEREIGN & DEV

Field-delivered EUDR traceability, Ondo State

2025 · Nigeria

The situation

EU deforestation regulation makes untraceable cocoa unsellable into Europe. A European buyer required farm-level traceability to its own specification.

What we did

We delivered the programme in the field: farmer registration, geolocation polygon mapping and certification alignment with Rainforest Alliance standards: our own team, in-country.

The outcome

A registered, geolocated supply base meeting the buyer’s specification: EUDR readiness as delivered infrastructure, not a policy PDF.

Farm-levelRegistration & mapping
EUDR · RAStandard
In-fieldDelivery

References available to qualified parties on request.

SOVEREIGN & DEV

National inspection strategy for a sovereign

2024 · Central Africa · presented to government

The situation

A Central African state ran a national vehicle-inspection regime with compliance below 30%: a revenue and road-safety failure.

What we did

We designed the national strategy around a tiered pricing model: affordability-calibrated fees, enforcement sequencing and an implementation path built to be bankable for private operators.

The outcome

A design targeting compliance toward 90%, structured so the economics work for the state, the operator and the citizen.

Compliance today <30%Design target ~90%
<30%Compliance today
~90%Design target
Tiered pricingModel

References available to qualified parties on request.

INVESTMENT

Special-situations review, Indonesian cocoa processing

2024 · South Sulawesi, Indonesia

The situation

A US impact fund with over US$1bn deployed in developing-economy private debt held a US$30m senior secured facility into Indonesia’s fourth-largest cocoa processor by installed capacity, a company with US$139m of revenue at its peak. Payments had been deferred and the position was distressed; the lender needed independent ground truth, not another desk review.

What we did

We went to the factory. A site assessment in Makassar covered machinery, plant flow, hygiene standards and procurement, tested against our own cocoa-market analysis. The critical finding: real operating capacity was ~25,000 MT against a 92,500 MT nameplate: the number all financial modelling should use. We built a three-phase recovery plan: a US$10–20m working-capital facility, tolling relationships and international buyer audits, then rationalising excess plant, and pressure-tested every finding in structured Q&A with management.

The outcome

The lender received an evidence-based view of what the asset can actually do, a workout roadmap in priority order, and a clear immediate action: secure the trade line first. Adviser and operator in one report: every number verified on site.

Nameplate capacity — 92,500 MTVerified operating reality — ~25,000 MT
92,500 MTNameplate
~25,000 MTVerified reality
3 phasesRecovery plan
US$30mPosition reviewed
US$10m+New trade line identified

References available to qualified parties on request.

CORPORATE

Due diligence on a West African cocoa processor

2023 · conclusions re-tested 2026 · West Africa

The situation

The impact investment arm of a pan-African development bank was preparing a convertible-note investment into a cocoa processing company. Before funding, the investor needed an independent view on two questions: could the plant produce what the model assumed, and was the security worth what the balance sheet said.

What we did

We rebuilt the financial model from the underlying accounts rather than checking management’s, walked the process line on site, and verified the customer story through our own trade network rather than the target’s reference list. Achievable production was derived from first principles: line by line, constraint by constraint.

The outcome

A 76-page report and 22-tab model, contract to delivery in six weeks, giving the investor an independent view of achievable production, valuation and security ahead of its decision, with a phased plan addressed to the plant’s actual constraints rather than its ambitions. In 2026 we re-tested our conclusions against the company’s subsequent accounts: the specific risks identified in 2023 were the ones that materialised.

6 wksContract to delivery76 ppReport22Model tabs2026Conclusions re-tested

References available to qualified parties on request.

CORPORATE

Operational turnaround, Egyptian distribution

2022–23 · Egypt · via partner firm

The situation

A leading Egyptian auto-parts distributor was strained not by demand but by its own working-capital cycle: cash locked in inventory and receivables faster than the business could replace it, in a market where import costs and currency pressure punish slow turns.

What we did

Working through a local partner firm, we built the restructuring plan around the cash-conversion cycle: inventory discipline, receivables management and a route-to-market redesign to shorten the distance between purchase and payment.

The outcome

A restructuring plan delivered to the principals in 2023, reorganising the distribution model around cash generation rather than volume. Fuller detail available on request.

2022–23Engagement
Principal-ledDelivery model
2023Plan delivered

References available to qualified parties on request.

The strongest reference is a client. We are happy to introduce prospective clients to the people we have worked for. Every engagement above is backed by paper, and by a reference call you are welcome to make.

Start with the four-week study.
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Advisory at a glance

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US$150m+
Advised on since 2020
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Engagements run from short, scoped mandates to ongoing oversight relationships. For an introductory call, write to the desk below. A principal reads it.

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Lundy Origin

The route to market for what our companies produce.

Lundy Origin is the route to market for what the companies we invest in produce, taking advantage of our on-the-ground experience of the countries we operate in. From bottle to bulk: Branded consumer goods at one end: wine, olive oil, craft beer. Raw and soft commodities at the other: cocoa, sesame, shea, cashew, nuts, oils and grains. One distribution business, built because our own producers needed it.

Visit Lundy Origin →

Two books, one route

From bottle to bulk.

01 / Branded
Orchards of Laila product range

Branded consumer goods

Wine, olive oil, craft beer and speciality foods from the Levant, placed with importers, retailers and hospitality buyers internationally. The supply side is our own ecosystem: the consumer-goods producers we back across the Levant.

02 / Bulk
Cacao pods at harvest

Raw & soft commodities

Cocoa, sesame, shea, cashew, nuts, oils and grains from West Africa: certified, traceable and export-ready. Sourced through our own origination and export operations, farms, processing and logistics we operate on the ground, alongside vetted origin partners.

The division of labour is deliberate: our operating companies own, grow and process at origin; Origin sells and distributes to the buyer, on arm’s-length terms. Most trade houses do bulk or brands. Origin does both, because both are what our companies produce.

Lundy Origins

The distribution business of Lundy Investors

Why it exists

Origin began as an answer to a portfolio problem: a brilliant Lebanese producer without a route onto an international shelf stays a local story. So we built the route, and the route became a business. Today it carries our own producers first, and third-party product where it meets the same standard: certified, traceable, and worth a buyer’s time.

It is also how “capital that does the work” cashes out in trade: we don’t hand product to an intermediary and hope. We register the farmers, run the warehouses, book the freight and sit across the table from the buyer.

Explore the full range at lundyorigins.com →

Research

Research that does the work.

Lundy Intelligence is the firm’s research hub: client reporting, in-depth market research, and bespoke macro and sector analysis supporting the firm’s asset-management and advisory lines. Part of the desk’s research and market analysis is made available to the wider investment community, by subscription and through regular distribution on LinkedIn.

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Weeklies · Week Ahead · portfolio · specials
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Commodities · Global macro · Themes · Emerging & frontier
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Commodity Report · unbroken series
Our IC
First reader
We act on this research before anyone reads it
Overview

The desk works for the firm first.

Lundy Intelligence is the firm’s research and analysis hub: internal and external reporting that informs the investment decisions behind the Commodities and LevaNA funds, the Discovery and managed-account strategies, and the advisory practice. Coverage runs from bespoke research in emerging and frontier markets and specialist commodities, and the supply chains behind them, to insight and positioning in global markets. Every active position in the funds carries a named research specialist.

What we publish is a share of that output, chosen because it matters to the markets we invest in; dated, and attributed to the analyst who wrote it. Subscribers read the same work our committee reads; nothing is written for publication that we would not act on ourselves.

12,0008,0004,000 Aug 2024Aug 2025Aug 2026
Fig. — Cocoa, NY US$/MT · two years of weekly candles to 20 Aug 2026 · Source: Lundy desk data
The investor-operator viewpoint

Market insight shaped by investment and operating realities. We research the markets we invest and operate in, so the work connects prices, policy and company fundamentals to what they actually mean for a portfolio or a business.

01

Evidence first

Primary documents, market data and clearly attributed reporting before opinion.

02

Market context

Each development read against macro, political, currency and sector conditions.

03

Commercial relevance

What it means for costs, revenues, financing, supply chains and investment cases.

04

Accountable judgement

Documented fact, estimate, scenario and our interpretation: kept separate, with named authors. AI may accelerate the workflow; a named professional is always accountable.

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Subscribers receive the desk’s weekly output: the Weekly Commodity Report, the Weekly Cocoa & Coffee Report, The Week Ahead, and the desk’s model portfolio (published for information, not investment advice), plus access to special reports as released. Request a subscription →

Classification & conflicts

Lundy Intelligence is practitioner-led market commentary and thematic research. Unless expressly stated, publications are not issuer-sponsored equity research, personalised investment advice, an offer or a recommendation to transact. Lundy may hold investments, advise businesses or have other commercial interests relevant to subjects covered; material interests are disclosed where applicable. Estimates are identified separately from reported figures, and material corrections are dated and recorded.

Latest reports

Recent research from the desk: read the summary here before requesting or downloading the full report. Editions are made available on this page on a delay. For current research as it is published, join our distribution list via the contact page.

COMMODITIES · WEEKLYWeekly Commodity Report · Edition 218
17 Aug 2026 · Global commodities: prices, positioning and the week’s signals. Published weekly since 2022.
COCOA · COFFEEWeekly Cocoa & Coffee Report · Edition 06
10 Aug 2026 · Origin pricing, arrivals, COT positioning and EUDR premium tracking.
NIGERIA · SERIESNigeria Resource Research · Paper 1: The Neglected Endowment
Jul 2026 · The endowment in its global context: top-tier production, captured value elsewhere, and what it takes to close the gap.
MACRO · EQUITIESThe Great AI Listing: anatomy of a $220 billion IPO supercycle
9 Jun 2026 · Dot-com parallels, liquidity mechanics and the investment-bank earnings impact.
AI · THEMATICThe Arc of AI: a five-phase investment framework, 2024–2029
Dec 2025 · Special Report · From silicon to superintelligence: where the market rotates next.
COMMODITIES · WEEKLY

Weekly Commodity Report · Edition 218

17 Aug 2026 · Lundy Intelligence desk · Edition 218 of a continuous weekly series

The physical supply story is back: the war premium returned to oil, and a below-trendline WASDE woke the grains.

Brent+6.0%Corn+4.6%Coal+3.7%NatGas+2.7%Lithium+2.4%Soybeans+1.5%Gold+0.9%Coffee+0.8%Iron Ore+0.8%Copper+0.3%Steel+0.1%Cocoa-0.8%Nickel-1.2%
Fig. — Weekly total return to 14 Aug 2026 close · Source: Barchart; Lundy Intelligence

Brent led the entire board, up 6.0% to $88.5, as US escalation against Iran and a naval blockade of Iranian ports brought the Hormuz war premium roaring back; the IEA flagged the widest global supply deficit in five years. The grains complex woke on a genuinely bullish August WASDE: a below-trendline corn yield of 182.4 bu/acre sent corn up 4.6% and pulled soybeans with it. Cooler inflation did the rest: July CPI at 3.4% year-on-year trimmed September-hike odds to roughly one-in-three, keeping gold’s bid intact at a fresh multi-month high.

Only cocoa and nickel finished red. Equities consolidated, the Nikkei jumped 4.7% to a record, and the dollar was flat, so this week’s commodity strength was driven by supply stories rather than a currency tailwind. The full edition covers each market in turn, with the desk’s model portfolio and positioning available to subscribers.

Request the full report · join the distribution list →

Practitioner-led market commentary. Not issuer-sponsored research or personalised advice. Lundy may hold interests in subjects covered.

COCOA · COFFEE

Weekly Cocoa & Coffee Report · Edition 06

10 Aug 2026 · Lundy Intelligence desk · week ending 7 August

“The market gapped eight per cent on Monday, printed a shooting star on Wednesday, and then did nothing for two days. When that happens, the weekly close is the only one worth listening to; the weekly close went up.”

NY Cocoa+7.13%London Cocoa+5.93%Arabica+1.04%Robusta+0.13%
Fig. — Weekly change, week ending 7 Aug 2026 · Source: Lundy Intelligence

The week divided into three acts. Monday gapped and ran: New York cocoa closed up roughly 8% on the day as the squeeze ignited on weekend El Niño headlines, finishing the week at $5,782 (+7.13%) with London at £4,249 (+5.93%). Wednesday printed the exhaustion signal, a textbook shooting star at 6,222 on the heaviest volume of the advance. Thursday and Friday then did the one thing not on the list: nothing. A market that prints an exhaustion candle and then declines to decline is a market where the sellers have made their case and been ignored.

The physical market is not leading this rally: ICE stocks sit at a two-year high, Ivorian arrivals are up more than a fifth year-on-year, and differentials are easing. The fuel is positioning and weather: managed money had built a combined 17,042-lot net short into the move, and NOAA’s El Niño Advisory carries an 81% probability of a very strong October–December event. The 26/27 crop is genuinely contested between credible houses, and the deciding evidence arrives within days. Full price-action, supply and positioning detail, with the desk’s verdicts by market, is in the subscriber edition.

Request the full report · join the distribution list →

Practitioner-led market commentary. Not issuer-sponsored research or personalised advice. Lundy may hold interests in subjects covered.

NIGERIA · RESOURCES

Nigeria Resource Research · Paper 1: The Neglected Endowment

July 2026 · Lundy Intelligence

“The endowment does not need inflation to be significant; it needs definition to be financeable.”

Cassava & yam#1world’s largest producerShea#1~40% of world cropSesame#2exporter by valueGum arabic#3producerBarite#4largest reserve, 44 mineralsCocoa#5producerOil palm#5producer
Fig. — Nigeria’s world position, by resource · a high place in the production table beside a low one in the value table is the rule · Source: Paper 1

Nigeria’s resource endowment is real and unusually broad. Few countries hold a top-tier position across so many tables at once: the world’s largest producer of cassava and yam, roughly 40% of the global shea crop, the second sesame exporter by value, a top-three gum arabic producer, top-five in cocoa and oil palm, and the largest barite reserve among 44 documented solid minerals. Yet much of this is recorded as geological occurrence rather than compliant, bankable reserve, and the headline valuations attached to it are frequently promotional. A high place in the production table beside a low one in the value table is the rule across the endowment, not the exception.

The paper builds the global benchmark against which any producing country should be read: the world market for each resource group, and the conditions that separate countries which capture resource value from those which export it raw. The central finding holds in every resource examined: the value lies downstream of extraction. And the history sharpens the point. Nigeria produced 45% of the world’s palm oil in 1961 and was Africa’s largest rubber producer in 1966; each industry was built, then lost. Withdrawn, not incapable. With the currency regime making dollar generation an imperative, diversification is now forced rather than optional; what stands between the endowment and its execution is definition, capital and capability.

Request the full paper →

Neutral market and resource analysis. Not investment advice. Lundy may hold interests in subjects covered.

MACRO · EQUITIES

The Great AI Listing: anatomy of a $220 billion IPO supercycle

9 Jun 2026 · Edward Rowson, Managing Partner & CEO

Five listings. US$220 billion. A capital-absorption event without modern precedent.

Executive summary · full 10-page note in the PDF

Between June and October 2026, US equity markets face a capital-absorption event without modern precedent: five companies preparing IPOs targeting roughly $220 billion in primary raises at a combined implied valuation above $3.4 trillion: nearly five times the entire 2025 US IPO market, concentrated in five listings. The note maps the cycle against the dot-com era and places today’s market at roughly late-1997: the narrative established, the manic final phase not yet arrived, with one structural difference, the earnings floor (NASDAQ-100 at ~30× earnings versus ~200× in 2000), and one uncomfortable similarity: the listing companies themselves are deeply loss-making at trillion-dollar valuations.

Dot-com · Jan 1995→Mar 2000 AI era · Oct 2022→Jun 2026 100300500700 Dot-com peakMar 2000 We are here · Jun 2026 0102030405060 Months from cycle start · both series indexed to 100
Fig. — NASDAQ cycle comparison, dot-com vs AI era · current position as of 9 June 2026 · Source: Bloomberg, NASDAQ; Lundy Intelligence

It then works the liquidity mechanics: total incremental capital demand approaching $1.5 trillion in six months once Treasury and corporate issuance are counted. It identifies the likely casualties of reallocation (small and mid-caps, non-AI tech, emerging markets, long duration, speculative assets), and sizes the underwriting fee pool for the lead banks. The house view is probabilistic:

Absorbed; grind higher; H1 2027 correction risk60%Weak pricing; pipeline recalibrates; 10–15% NASDAQ correction25%Exogenous shock closes the window15%

Five actionable signals close the note: SpaceX first-week trading (holding above $135 and appreciating accelerates the pipeline; trading below issue within two weeks recalibrates the whole calendar); the 30-year Treasury yield (a sustained move above 5.25% compresses the growth-equity risk premium); the quarterly IPO deal count (any quarter below 40 deals echoes the dot-com crack); the lock-up expiration calendar (cascading insider supply in H1 2027 is the highest-probability correction catalyst); and the AI revenue-to-capex ratio (when it begins to improve, the fundamental case strengthens materially).

Download PDF ↓

Practitioner-led market commentary. Not issuer-sponsored research or personalised advice. Lundy may hold interests in subjects covered.

AI · THEMATIC

The Arc of AI: a five-phase investment framework

December 2025 · Special Report · Lundy Intelligence

We do not treat AI as a technology theme to be indexed, but as a sequence of capital cycles and sectoral realignments, each with distinct beneficiaries and casualties.

1 · Semis & hyperscalers2 · Data infra & energy3 · Enterprise adoption4 · AI employees5 · Real-world AI We are here · Aug 2026 202420252026202720282029
Fig. — The five AI investment phases: timeline and overlap · leadership rotates as each matures · Source: Lundy analysis, Exhibit ES.1

The report sets out a long-range investment map for the Arc of AI: the staged transformation of global business, labour, capital flows and market structure under frontier artificial intelligence. It builds on, and meaningfully sharpens, Aschenbrenner’s 2024 thesis, absorbing that roadmap but tilting from timelines to balance sheets: tracing the capital flows and bottlenecks through which the transition materialises. The macro numbers are large ($15.7 trillion of estimated GDP contribution by 2030; over 60% of large enterprises already testing agent tools) but the central finding is that distribution matters more than magnitude. The result is not AI uplift everywhere; it is bifurcation.

Five phases, each with a discrete locus of impact: semiconductors and hyperscalers (the opening bid, now largely played out and fully valued); data infrastructure and energy (the most capital-intensive and most durable phase (land, electrons and copper cannot be obsoleted by software); enterprise adoption, where efficiency turns into earnings and the story is margin, not revenue; AI employees, where software stops supporting work and becomes the work; and real-world AI, as autonomy leaves the screen and reprices manufacturing, logistics and defence. Leadership rotates as each phase matures; the investor’s job is to anticipate the sequence and position ahead of it.

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Practitioner-led market commentary. Not issuer-sponsored research or personalised advice. Lundy may hold interests in subjects covered.

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